In a striking transformation, the small South American country of Guyana — until recently one of the continent’s poorest nations — has entered the world’s top 10 richest countries by GDP per capita. In just one decade, Guyana has moved from its first oil discovery to producing nearly 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block. This achievement has come despite an unbalanced production-sharing agreement that heavily favors the ExxonMobil-led consortium controlling the oil concession, yet it has still delivered an extraordinary economic boom. However, the speed of this growth and the scale of oil income are raising concerns that Guyana may fall victim to the so-called “oil curse.”

In a recent ranking of the world’s richest countries based on 2025 GDP per capita projections adjusted for purchasing power parity, Guyana placed tenth globally, compared with 107th just a decade ago. The former British colony now ranks behind wealthy nations such as Brunei, Switzerland, and Norway, while unexpectedly surpassing the United States, the world’s second-largest economy.

Guyana’s GDP on a purchasing power parity basis has surged since oil production began in December 2019. According to International Monetary Fund data, GDP has expanded sevenfold, rising from $10.69 billion that year to a projected $75.24 billion by 2025.

This massive expansion briefly made Guyana the fastest-growing economy in the world. Between 2022 and 2024, the country — with a population of fewer than one million — recorded annual growth rates of 63.3%, 33.8%, and 43.6% respectively, the highest globally in each of those years.

Although growth has slowed in recent months, despite rising oil output following the start-up of the Yellowtail project, Guyana’s economy is still expected to expand by 10.3% in 2025, making it the world’s third-fastest-growing economy this year.

Latest government data show Guyana currently produces around 900,000 barrels per day, making it the third-largest oil producer in South America after Brazil and Venezuela. Output is expected to continue rising as Exxon develops three additional projects in the Stabroek Block — Uaru, Whiptail, and Hammerhead — alongside a fourth proposed facility known as Longtail, which is still under regulatory review.

Once these three projects come online, between 2026 and 2029, they are expected to add 650,000 barrels per day of capacity, lifting Guyana’s total potential production to around 1.5 million barrels per day.

A fourth facility is also under development but has yet to receive final approval. The Longtail project, discovered in 2018, is the fourth discovery by the Exxon-led consortium in the Stabroek Block. Unlike earlier projects, Longtail — with an estimated cost of $12.5 billion — will focus on natural gas and condensate production. The project is currently undergoing environmental assessment, with Exxon expecting a final investment decision by the end of 2026. If approved, production would begin in 2030, adding up to 1.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day and 290,000 barrels of condensate, pushing Guyana’s total hydrocarbon output above 1.7 million barrels per day.

As these offshore assets come onstream, oil production will further boost the former British colony’s GDP. The IMF expects Guyana’s GDP, on a purchasing power parity basis, to more than double between 2025 and 2030, rising from $75 billion to $156 billion. For a country with fewer than one million people, this equates to GDP per capita approaching $193,000. On this measure, Guyana would become the world’s second-richest country after Liechtenstein, ahead of Singapore. However, such extreme concentration of wealth from a single resource — oil — has intensified concerns over the risk of the oil curse.

The “oil curse” refers to the phenomenon in which resource-rich countries become excessively dependent on crude oil revenues, often leading to weak governance, corruption, mismanagement, democratic erosion, political instability, and ultimately internal conflict. Venezuela is a prominent example, where decades of over-reliance on oil undermined economic development, destabilized the country, and culminated in dictatorship and economic collapse.

Against this backdrop, the Stabroek Block — estimated to contain at least 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources — has become a focal point for Caracas. Following Exxon’s series of world-class offshore discoveries, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro escalated hostile rhetoric and threats in an effort to reclaim the long-disputed Essequibo region. Roughly the size of the US state of Georgia, Essequibo accounts for two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and is rich in precious metals, diamonds, copper, iron, aluminum, bauxite, and manganese.

The prolific Stabroek Block lies within Guyana’s territorial waters in the disputed Essequibo region, which Venezuela has claimed since its independence. Over the past three years, Caracas has intensified efforts to reassert control over the area, including threats of invasion. The Essequibo border has seen repeated clashes between the Guyanese military and Venezuelan criminal groups, while Venezuelan naval vessels have entered the Stabroek Block to harass and threaten floating production, storage, and offloading vessels operating there.

Concerns are growing that Guyana — a developing country with a history of corruption — lacks the governance capacity and institutional stability needed to manage the enormous wealth generated by this unprecedented oil boom. Questions are already emerging over how Georgetown is spending the massive oil revenues flowing into state coffers. The government has launched an ambitious infrastructure program, allocating $1.2 billion for public works in 2025 to fund new roads and bridges, develop a world-class deep-water port, and expand public facilities such as hospitals. Nonetheless, there are widespread fears that many Guyanese citizens are not benefiting from the economic surge.

Despite rapid growth, a large share of the population continues to live below the poverty line. Analysts estimate that up to 58% of Guyana’s population remains in poverty, although precise figures are difficult to establish due to limited official data. The World Bank estimated in 2019 that 48% of the population lived below the poverty line. Community leaders argue that oil revenues have yet to reach the poorest communities, particularly in rural areas.

These concerns are compounded by Guyana’s growing dependence on volatile global energy markets at a time when oil price prospects appear increasingly uncertain. Benchmark Brent crude prices fell 17% over the past year, directly affecting oil revenues. Analysts at major financial institutions expect Brent prices to fall to around $30 per barrel by 2027 due to global oversupply. The rapid development of Guyana’s offshore fields is unsurprisingly one of the key contributors to the sharp rise in non-OPEC global supply growth.

This will weigh heavily on Guyana’s newfound oil wealth. As global oil prices decline amid oversupply, the country’s oil revenues will shrink — a problem exacerbated by the fact that 75% of production from the Stabroek Block is classified as cost oil, meaning it is excluded from royalty and profit-sharing calculations with the state. While this may not be enough to derail the current boom in the short term, it carries significant risks of corruption, mismanagement, unbalanced development, and long-term damage to an economy that is becoming ever more dependent on oil.

Nickel prices came under renewed pressure on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, hovering near multi-month lows as markets absorbed fresh signs of weakness from the Chinese economy, thinner liquidity toward year-end, and a new wave of warnings about supply surpluses alongside updated bank forecasts.

In London, benchmark nickel struggled to regain momentum after testing an eight-month low earlier in the week, while nickel contracts in China slid to fresh multi-year lows, reinforcing the view that the market remains dominated by ample supply and cautious demand.

Where is nickel trading?

“Nickel prices today” vary depending on the benchmark used (LME three-month contracts, cash prices, exchange-traded futures, or regional spot markets). The main reference points are as follows:

LME nickel (three-month contracts): Prices were reported down 0.2% to $14,310 per metric ton during London trading, after touching an eight-month low of $14,235 on Monday.

LME official closing price (one-day deferred): The exchange showed a three-month nickel closing price of $14,346, down 1.65%.

Intraday trading range (three-month contracts – via SMM): Widely followed market data showed an opening price of $14,280, a session high of $14,350, a low of $14,250, with prices later trading near $14,310.

Nickel futures (Investing.com): Futures were trading near $14,281, within a daily range of $14,218 to $14,320.

Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE): Reuters reported that nickel prices in Shanghai fell to a 40-month low of 111,770 yuan per ton, highlighting the pronounced weakness in the Chinese market.

Bottom line: Across the main global benchmarks, nickel is effectively trading in the mid-$14,000 per ton range, while China’s domestic market is showing the clearest negative momentum.

What is driving nickel prices?

Today’s nickel moves are not driven by a single headline, but by a combination of macroeconomic pressures, demand concerns, and supply-surplus dynamics.

1. China demand concerns resurface

One of the main drags on industrial metals today is renewed evidence of slowing Chinese industrial activity. Reuters reported that factory output growth in China slowed to a 15-month low in November, while new home prices continued to decline — a combination that typically weighs on demand expectations for base metals.

As stainless steel remains the largest day-to-day demand driver for nickel, any signs of weakness in China’s construction and manufacturing sectors tend to feed quickly into nickel pricing.

2. Supply surplus dominates — and forecasts reinforce it

The supply surplus remains the central theme in the nickel market and has been reinforced again this week.

Reuters noted that Russia’s Nornickel raised its estimates for the nickel surplus and pointed to a much larger oversupply in 2025 and 2026 compared with earlier projections. This is particularly significant given Nornickel’s position as one of the world’s largest refined nickel producers, making its market balance outlook closely watched.

At the same time, weakness is evident across the broader nickel value chain.

Reuters highlighted that nickel pig iron (NPI) and nickel sulphate have been under pressure since mid-October, reflecting stress in stainless steel inputs and battery materials.

3. Year-end liquidity amplifies price swings

As many market participants scale back risk exposure toward year-end, price moves can become more exaggerated than fundamentals alone would suggest.

In a market update published by Reuters, analysts at Sucden Financial noted that thinner liquidity could amplify volatility in base metals, leaving markets vulnerable to sharper moves.

In practical terms, even relatively modest selling can push nickel prices lower when order books are thin.

China signals within the physical nickel market: spot prices, premiums, and real-economy demand

One of the most useful ways to read the nickel market is to look beyond LME prices and examine developments in China’s physical market.

Refined nickel spot market: lower prices, mixed premiums

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported that prices for Class 1 refined nickel in China on December 16 ranged between 111,700 and 117,800 yuan per ton, with an average of 114,750 yuan, down 2,650 yuan on the day.

At the same time, SMM noted that premiums for Jinchuan refined nickel remained elevated, priced around 5,500–5,700 yuan per ton (average 5,600 yuan), despite the decline in the base price.

This combination — falling outright prices but resilient premiums — typically points to a market where demand is cautious, but preferred deliverable material still commands a premium.

Battery-grade nickel sulphate: easing amid weak buying appetite

In the battery segment, SMM reported that its battery-grade nickel sulphate index stood at 27,181 yuan per ton, with quoted prices ranging from 27,430 to 27,530 yuan per ton, slightly lower on the day.

SMM attributed the softer tone to a combination of:

A decline in LME nickel prices, reducing near-term cost support,

Weak demand from downstream processors,

And generally subdued restocking appetite.

Core nickel assessment today: “searching for a bottom” amid inventory pressure

A detailed SMM report dated December 16 described nickel as being in a “searching for a bottom” phase after breaking key technical support levels, with upside capped by high inventories and weak demand.

SMM also outlined the tension between cost support and inventory pressure:

Price action (SMM): LME nickel hovered near $14,295 per ton, down 2.22%, while the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fell 2.36% on the day.

Inventory levels: SMM reported refined nickel social inventories around 59,000 tons in December, with LME stocks near 253,000 tons, underscoring weak demand.

Cost floor discussion: SMM highlighted production cost benchmarks for refined nickel from various intermediate routes, noting that hydrometallurgical processing costs are becoming a key level traders are watching for potential price support.

Near-term price range (China): SMM expects the most active SHFE nickel contract to trade between 112,000 and 116,000 yuan per ton in the short term.

This framework captures current market psychology: prices may drift toward cost levels, but abundant inventories continue to cap any recovery attempts.

Nickel price outlook: what analysts updated today (December 16, 2025)

Forecasts moved back into focus today following a notable update from a major investment bank.

Morgan Stanley: nickel seen “drifting” toward $15,500 per ton in 2026

In a note cited by Reuters on December 16, Morgan Stanley revised its 2026 outlook for base metals, stating it expects nickel prices to ease toward $15,500 per ton as demand growth broadly matches supply growth.

At the same time, the bank highlighted several cross-currents complicating the outlook:

Potential supply-side risks from policy changes in Indonesia,

Loss of market share in electric-vehicle batteries weighing on demand,

Keeping the nickel market in surplus through 2026 in its base case.

This projection represents a middle-ground scenario: it does not foresee a sharp rebound, but also suggests that nickel may not remain stuck at today’s depressed levels indefinitely.

What to watch next for nickel prices

With nickel consolidating near the lower end of its recent range, traders and industrial buyers are focusing on several near-term catalysts:

China demand signals

Upcoming data on industrial activity, property, and stainless steel will be closely watched, as the latest selloff was tightly linked to growth concerns in China.

Supply surplus narrative versus policy risks

The market is weighing surplus expectations against the possibility that regulations, quotas, or disruptions — particularly related to Indonesia — could tighten balances faster than expected.

Battery materials pricing and buying behavior

Nickel sulphate prices and downstream purchasing patterns may offer early clues on demand, and for now SMM describes buying as cautious and deal flow as sporadic.

Inventory trends (LME and China)

Inventories and deliverable supply remain central to sentiment, with current analysis continuing to highlight stock overhangs as a key constraint on any sustained upside.

Bitcoin fell on Tuesday, extending its recent selloff as risk appetite — particularly toward highly speculative crypto assets — remained weak.

Cryptocurrency prices largely tracked the prolonged downturn in global technology stocks, as growing questions around artificial intelligence pushed investors to lock in recent gains across the sector. Losses in tech shares weighed on demand for cryptocurrencies and other high-risk assets.

Bitcoin dropped 4% to $85,987.9 by 00:35 ET (05:35 GMT), nearing its weakest levels in about two weeks. The cryptocurrency also remained close to its seven-month low recorded in late November.

Bitcoin under pressure as sentiment deteriorates ahead of jobs data

Bitcoin has steadily lost momentum over the past week, failing to draw meaningful support from the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut and its more accommodative policy tone.

Risk appetite remained fragile as traders awaited data likely to influence the Fed’s future policy direction. The US non-farm payrolls report for November is due later on Tuesday, followed by consumer inflation data on Thursday.

The labor market and inflation remain the key inputs guiding the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. Any signs of weaker job growth or easing inflation pressures could reinforce expectations for further rate cuts.

Such a scenario could help Bitcoin recover some of its losses, as lower interest rates tend to boost the appeal of speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The Federal Reserve also began repurchasing short-term Treasury securities last week, increasing market liquidity and potentially opening the door for additional flows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Ultra-low interest rates and liquidity injections — often referred to as quantitative easing — were among the main drivers behind the cryptocurrency rally in 2021.

Cryptocurrency prices today: altcoins follow Bitcoin lower

Other cryptocurrencies declined broadly, with major altcoins following Bitcoin’s losses.

Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 6.33% to $2,922.06, while XRP dropped nearly 6% to $1.8817.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday below $60 a barrel — their lowest level since May this year — as signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine strengthened expectations that sanctions on Moscow could eventually be eased.

Brent crude futures dropped by 81 cents, or about 1.3%, to $59.75 a barrel by 12:14 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 84 cents, or nearly 1.5%, to $55.98 a barrel.

Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said: “Brent slipped below $60 a barrel this morning for the first time in months, as the market assesses the possibility of a peace deal that could bring additional Russian oil supplies back to the market, further increasing the supply glut.”

The United States has offered NATO-style security guarantees to Kyiv, while European negotiators reported progress in talks on Monday aimed at ending Russia’s war on Ukraine, raising optimism that a settlement to the conflict may be approaching.

Russia, however, said it is not prepared to make any territorial concessions in talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, according to comments by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov cited by Russia’s TASS news agency.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said: “The slow pace of negotiations will likely be accompanied by a continued gradual decline in prices as we move into 2026, with all the expectations of a supply surplus that year. Brent is likely to record a new year-to-date low, but it is unlikely to fall below $55 a barrel before the end of the year.”

Meanwhile, Barclays analysts expect Brent crude to average $65 a barrel in 2026, slightly above current futures prices, against the backdrop of an expected surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day, which they believe is already priced into the market.

Weak China data add further pressure

Pressure on oil prices intensified following the release of weak Chinese economic data on Monday, reinforcing concerns that global demand may not be strong enough to absorb recent supply growth, according to Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, in a research note.

Official data showed that China’s industrial output growth slowed to a 15-month low, while retail sales recorded their slowest growth since December 2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

Supply glut concerns were only partially offset after the United States seized an oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast last week, but traders and analysts said rising floating storage and increased Chinese purchases of Venezuelan oil ahead of sanctions have limited the impact of that development on the market.